Geopolitics
Ukraine
The Crux: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are heating up after Russian troops stack up near the Ukrainian border.
What you need to know: Following the seventh anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, Russian troops amassed near the border. The incident provoked Ukraine and its Western allies to respond with verbal threats. US President Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to their Ukrainian counterparts to reiterate American support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Ukrainian President Zelensky also requested additional NATO exercises in the region.
Why this matters: Many eastern Europe scholars believe this is another symbolic episode of Russian posturing. Others cite the buildup as a more notable aggression toward Ukraine, noting a spike in separatist violence in the east. Russia has warned that reciprocal moves by Ukraine and its allies risk further escalation. The tension comes at a time when Russian relations with the West remain fractured over the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Russian interference in Western elections. Read more here.
Jordan
The Crux: Jordanian authorities arrested King Abdullah’s brother and former Crown Prince on charges of promoting sedition.
What you need to know: The former Crown Prince, Hamzah bin al Hussein, and a former state security official, Sharif Hassan bin Zaid, were among several individuals arrested for unspecified attempts to destabilize state security. The two responded to their arrests by calling out the government as corrupt and warning that further action to combat government criticism will incite fear in the population. Jordan’s crackdown on internal criticism comes as the government struggles with continued domestic distrust and souring relations with Israel.
Why this matters: Jordan is one of the most stable countries in the Middle East and was one of the first Arab nations to normalize relations with Israel. Rising tensions between the two nations coupled with increasing public criticism point to forthcoming challenges for the Jordanian monarchy. Jordanian citizens previously ousted two prime ministers over a struggling economy and distasteful tax reform, highlighting the delicacy of the government’s position. Read more here.
United States
The Crux: One US Capitol Police officer died after an attack at the US Capitol building.
What you need to know: 25 year old Noah Green drove his car into a barricade at the entrance of the US Capitol Building, hitting two Capitol Police officers. Green got out of his car brandishing a knife before being shot and killed. The attack killed one Capitol Police officer and left another officer injured. USCP is still investigating the motive of the attack.
Why this matters: Lawmakers and DC government officials may have to proceed with enhanced security measures to defend against continued threats.
Economics
Oil
The Crux: OPEC+ will increase oil production starting next month.
What you need to know: OPEC+, a quasi-official designation of leading oil producing countries, agreed to increase oil production amid some optimism for a global economic recovery. Until now, many oil-producing countries have remained apprehensive to prematurely increase production due to uncertainty over the pandemic. The move reflects growing hopefulness, but Saudi Arabia expressed skepticism in being overly optimistic about global oil demand over the near term.
Cyber
The Crux: Previously compromised Facebook data for 533 million users leaked online after two years.
What you need to know: Hackers released data on 533 million users to the world on Saturday. While this Facebook vulnerability was patched up in 2019, the release provides malicious actors the opportunity to target individuals through attacks, such as influence operations, phishing attacks, or identity theft attempts. The release shadows recent efforts by Facebook to address well-publicized privacy shortcomings.